LT-SS-2023-002-Ellensburg-Unity-Park-Shade-Tents (4)

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Ovemll, this study looks at a very conservative capfure scenario for leaking r.etail sales in severalways: ' Only counting existing leakage in both trade areas and presuming no population growth inthe primary trade arca (which will continue to grow); ' Only counting local and regional population - not visitors (who comprise over 15Zo of thecustomer base); " Using a20D/o capture rate used, leaving 80% of market leakage to continue to leak elsewhere; t Using a very conservative $200 per square fooi estimated sales across all retail categories. The supportable square footage rinder this scenario is 95,000 square fbet of total retail in theoverall trade area. Suburban developers are likely to use more aggressive numbers, Ieavinganyone looking at downtown to focus on roughly a third of this numb"r, Even still, this couldsupport significant expansion of the downtown's retail footplint by simpiy '.freezing thedemand" in current tirne. 2.3.5 Key Housing Market Opportunities Unlike retail market analysis, housing markets are much less precise to unclerstand. Using theprojections for the primary trade area for population and household growth it can be assumed lMJh. Eliensburg market will add tzO additional housing units per year in Ellensburg or 600 by20.?a' Building permit data reported through the city of Bllensbuig corroborat., tii* numberwith the avetage of 55 new units (conservative estimate) coming online each year. National trends in housing indicate increasing interest in downtown living both with millennialsand empty nesters. With Ellensburg's young average age of 30 and large proportion of collegestudents, there is a potential market for altemative nnas of housing srich'as'iofts, condos andapartments' A simply allocation model that capfures only 5o% of the demand for future housingin the market would yield 150 new units thai do not conform to the traditional single-familyhouse' This estimate for additional downtown housing is a bit mor€ aggressive than the retail assessment but the national trends point toward growth in this area anO niw product coming online conoborates these national trends. More detail as to the location of this housing is shown inthe pians below but they will generally cluster in upper floor units in the core of downtown andin new mixed-use development between downtown and Central Washington University. 2.3.6 llotel Market Opportunities Ellensburg is home to ten.hotel l1gg.rtlg, with a total of 682 hotel rooms. The occupancy rate l"t:t: all of these properties is 58%, which is slightly lower than the national stanJard of 62%.It is important to note, however, that this occupancy rate accounts for some ageing propertieswithin the city limits of Ellensburg and that n.* ptopl.ties experience higher o.ripui.y. The same is true for the average daily room rate in Ellensbnrg, which stands at $87 per night andis lowerthan the national average daily room rute at$roa fier night. Again, ageing properties can account for this figure. More importantly, Eliensburg has .*p"ii"n".Jun in.irurJ in averagedaily rates, revenue per available room, und o..opun{, rates,' The Kittitas County Tourism 19