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nhG <br />channel width of 80.6 feet. Increasing the channel forming discharge to 886 ds, to account for the lick <br />Creek contribution, results in an estimated channel width of 83 feet, suggesting the channel may widen <br />an the order of 2 feet, a 3% increase relative to the current condition. <br />Two feet of widening is a central estimate of the potential response, but uncertainty In all elements of <br />the parameterization creates a range of plausible channel forms. Application of typical uncertainty <br />associated with all Input parameters dwarfs the impact of the very small predicted change in channel - <br />forming discharge. Figure 6 shows the results of a Monte -Carlo analysis based on the existing condition, <br />applying a 5% uncertainty to the discharge, 10% to the pso, 20% to the Da4, and 20% to p. In contrast, <br />Figure 7 shows the results of a Monte -Carlo analysis based on the existing condition and applying only a <br />5% change in discharge. The small scatter of results In the latter case (range of widths from 79 to 84 <br />feet) compared to the fomes (range of widths from 59 to 98 feet) shows how insensitive the prediction <br />of river morphology Is to this small change (4.496) In the governing hydrology. <br />Potential impact of Lick Creek relocation on the NF Tesnaway River Morphodynamicss 17 <br />