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capacityanalysis.Permitinformationwillalsohelptoidentifytrendsinurbanandruraldevelopment.•Analyzecensusdataandestablishkeyassumptions:BERKwillprepareamemodocumentingaproposedsetofassumptionsforlandcapacityanalysisforauthorizationbytheCountyandcities,includingdensities,householdsize,marketfactor(landunavailablefordevelopment),landsforrightsofwayandpublicpurposes,etc.•PerformGISanalysistodeterminelandcapacitybyparcel:UsingCountyandcity-providedlayersforparcels,criticalareas,landuse,zoning,publiclands,etc.,BERKwilldevelopanestimateofbuildableland.•CalculatecapacitybyUGA:Applyingkeyassumptions,BERKwillestimatelandcapacitybyUGA.Task3b.LandCapacityAnalysisforCommercialandIndustrialDevelopmentUnderthistaskBERKwouldcalculatetotalaggregatecapacityforcommercialandindustrialdevelopmentwithinthecurrentboundariesofeachUGA.ThenBERKwoulddetermineaggregatecapacityforcommercialandindustrialemploymentgrowthontheseparcelsbasedondensityassumptions.Thistaskalsoincludesthedevelopmentofuser-friendlyspreadsheetsthattheCountyandcitiescanusedtotesttheimpactsofadjustingassumptionsorparcelzoning.Thebudgetestimateassumesthattheworkwouldbeconductedatthesametimeasthepopulationlandcapacityanalysisforefficiency.Task3Deliverables:Dataentrytemplateandinstructions;Technicalmemo;Parcelcapacityspreadsheet;UGAcapacityanalysisspreadsheetTask4.GrowthAllocationTask4a.AllocationofPopulationbySubareaGMArequirescountiestoconsiderapopulationallocationintherangeofOFM'slow,mediumandhighforecastsandtoconsultwithcitiesontheallocationofpopulation.ToinformthedecisionandprovidealternativesforconsiderationinCountyandcitylanduseplansandSEPAreview,itisusefultocomparetwoscenariosagainstoneanother.Therefore,thistaskincludesanalysistodeveloptwoallocationscenarios:•TheCurrentshareAllocationwouldassumethateachcity/UGAmaintainitscurrentshareoftotalpopulation.•TheTrendAllocationwouldbedevelopedbyanalyzingCensusdatafrom2000and2010andOFMdatafrom2010-2015tocalculaterelativesharesofcountywidepopulationgrowthduringthatperiod.Newprojectedgrowthwouldthenbeallocatedaccordingtothoseshares.Thisallocationwouldconsideranurban/ruralshare,andwithintheurbanshare,allocationtocitiesandassociatedUGAs.Ifothersubareaallocationsaredesired(e.g.masterplannedresortsorlimitedareasofmoreintenseruraldevelopment)orifcitieswishtoadjustallocationstoreflectpolicychoiceswhichdivergefromtrends,thisworkcouldbeconductedaspartofasupplementaltask.ProfessionalServicesAgreementPage13