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Potential Funding for Proposed PFD
<br />The various large recreation projects that are intended to be partially funded by the proposed
<br />pFD - 1). Upper Kittitas Coung Community Recreation Center; 2). Ellensburg Community
<br />Fieldhouse; and 3). Kittitas Valley Aquatic Center - are located in Upper Kittitas County and in
<br />the City of Ellensburg. Given this geographic distribution throughout Kittitas County, it is
<br />assumed, for the purposes of this financial feasibility review, that if voters approve the
<br />imposition of a sales and use tax at the rate of 0.2 percent, it would be collected on
<br />Countywide taxable retail sales base.
<br />Our analysis considers 2 methodologies for projecting estimated taxable retail sales - 1).
<br />Conservative Scenario based on a linear regression; and 2). Moderate Scenarios reflecting the
<br />compounded annual growth rate observed between 2019 and 2024 (7.46 percent) and applied
<br />to future years (2025-2043).
<br />ln 2027, when the proposed PFD is assumed to be formed, the Conservative Scenario would
<br />yield annual revenues to the proposed PFD of $2.85M from the 0.2 percent sales tax, while
<br />the Moderate Scenario would yield revenues of $2.83M. Anticipated PFD sales tax revenues
<br />would amount to an average of between $4.1M (Conservative Scenario) and $5.36M
<br />(Moderate Scenario) annually (between 2027 and 2043).
<br />2024 Actual 2025 2026 2027 2028
<br />7 Estimated Taxable Retail Sales
<br />Projected Sales Tax Gollections & Estimated Taxable Retail Sales
<br />Kittitas County, W A QA24-20431
<br />3 Moderate Scenario
<br />4 Estimated Sales Tax Distribution to Proposed PFD
<br />$1,142,853,201$1,228,081,164$1,3',19,664,979$1,418,078,632$1,523'831,456
<br />6 Moderate Scenario
<br />7 Estimated Taxable Retail Sales
<br />$2,285,706 $2,456,162 92.999,999
<br />2035
<br />9?,q_3!,151
<br />2040
<br />$3,047,663
<br />2029 2030 2043
<br />3 Moderate Scenario
<br />4 Estimated Sales Tax Distribution to Proposed PFD
<br />$1,637,470,767 $1,759,584,699 $2,521 ,118,641 $3,612,238,276 $4,482'148'634
<br />$3,274,942 $3,519,169 $5,042,237 $7,224,477 $8,6 Moderate Scenario
<br />2. Reflecls linear regresslon model; Maybe impacted by historic splkes ln spending due to large construction projects
<br />3. Retects Compounded Annual GroMh Rate 2019-2024
<br />4. Assumes 0.2% allocation to proposed PFD
<br />Source: Kittitas County Treasurer Office, Washington State Departn]ent of Revenue, Johnson Consulling
<br />:.'*; rijllil.rllir
<br />964,297
<br />20
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