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<br />Potential Funding for Proposed PFD
<br />The various large recreation projects that are intended to be partially funded by the proposed
<br />PFD – 1). Upper Kittitas County Community Recreation Center; 2). Ellensburg Community
<br />Fieldhouse; and 3). Kittitas Valley Aquatic Center – are located in Upper Kittitas County and in
<br />the City of Ellensburg. Given this geographic distribution throughout Kittitas County, it is
<br />assumed, for the purposes of this financial feasibility review, that if voters approve the
<br />imposition of a sales and use tax at the rate of 0.2 percent, it would be collected on
<br />Countywide taxable retail sales base.
<br />Our analysis considers 2 methodologies for projecting estimated taxable retail sales – 1).
<br />Conservative Scenario based on a linear regression; and 2). Moderate Scenarios reflecting the
<br />compounded annual growth rate observed between 2019 and 2024 (7.46 percent) and applied
<br />to future years (2025-2043).
<br />In 2027, when the proposed PFD is assumed to be formed, the Conservative Scenario would
<br />yield annual revenues to the proposed PFD of $2.85M from the 0.2 percent sales tax, while
<br />the Moderate Scenario would yield revenues of $2.83M. Anticipated PFD sales tax revenues
<br />would amount to an average of between $4.1M (Conservative Scenario) and $5.36M
<br />(Moderate Scenario) annually (between 2027 and 2043).
<br />2024 Actual 2025 2026 2027 2028
<br />1 Estimated Taxable Retail Sales
<br />2 Conservative Scenario $1,142,853,201 $1,269,426,732 $1,347,843,536 $1,426,260,340 $1,504,677,144
<br />3 Moderate Scenario $1,142,853,201 $1,228,081,164 $1,319,664,979 $1,418,078,632 $1,523,831,456
<br />4 Estimated Sales Tax Distribution to Proposed PFD
<br />5 Conservative Scenario $2,285,706 $2,538,853 $2,695,687 $2,852,521 $3,009,354
<br />6 Moderate Scenario $2,285,706 $2,456,162 $2,639,330 $2,836,157 $3,047,663
<br />2029 2030 2035 2040 2043
<br />1 Estimated Taxable Retail Sales
<br />2 Conservative Scenario $1,583,093,948 $1,661,510,753 $2,053,594,773 $2,445,678,794 $2,680,929,207
<br />3 Moderate Scenario $1,637,470,767 $1,759,584,699 $2,521,118,641 $3,612,238,276 $4,482,148,634
<br />4 Estimated Sales Tax Distribution to Proposed PFD
<br />5 Conservative Scenario $3,166,188 $3,323,022 $4,107,190 $4,891,358 $5,361,858
<br />6 Moderate Scenario $3,274,942 $3,519,169 $5,042,237 $7,224,477 $8,964,297
<br />2. Reflects linear regression model; Maybe impacted by historic spikes in spending due to large construction projects
<br />3. Reflects Compounded Annual Growth Rate 2019-2024
<br />4. Assumes 0.2% allocation to proposed PFD
<br />Source: Kittitas County Treasurer Office, Washington State Department of Revenue, Johnson Consulting
<br />Projected Sales Tax Collections & Estimated Taxable Retail Sales
<br />Kittitas County, WA (2024-2043)
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