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2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan Kittitas County, Washington ffiL%#] Probability and Frequency The probability of occurrence for communicable diseases/pandemics in Kittitas County is medium because significant occurrences of this hazard have occasionally impacted the County and will likely occur again within 25 years. As per a recent study by the Duke Global Health lnstitute, a pandemic with an impact similar to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has about a 2o/o chance to occur every year. Therefore, there is a 25% chance that a similar pandemic will happen during the next decade, and 50% chance within the next 20 years.?7s Past Events The most notable communicable disease event in the State of Washington was COVID-19, marking the first confirmed case in the United States. On January 20, 2020, a 35 year old man who had recently returned from Wuhan, China, was diagnosed with COVID-19 in Snohomish County, Washington. The State experienced significant early impacts from the Pandemic. The first reported COVID-19 death in the United States occurred in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington. As a result, the Governor declared a State of Emergency on February 29,2020. Subsequently, public health measures were implemented - closure of schools, businesses, and the implementation of stay at home orders to curb the spread of the virus. Within weeks, the disease will rapidly spread in many parts of the country and worldwide. On March 11, 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic.-276 Table 4-166 outlines notable pandemics that have occurred worldwide. Table 4-166. Gommunicable Disease/Pandemic Events 275 Penn, M. (2021). Statistics Say Large Pandemics Are More Likely Than We Thought. Retrieved from https://olobalhealth.duke.edu/news/statistics-sav-larqe-pandemics-are-more-likelv-we-thouoht. 276 Stein, A. J. (2020). First confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United States is diagnosed in Snohomish County on January 20,2020. Retrieved from https://www.historvlink.ors/File/21018. 277 Berche P. (2022). Life and Death of Smallpox. Retrieved from httos ://www.scie nced i rect. com/science/a e/oii/S0755458222000 1 00?via%3Dih ub 278 Glatter, K. A. and Finkelman, P. (2020). History of the Plague: An Ancient Pandemic for the Age of COVID-19 Retrieved from https://www.amimed.co -9343(20)30792-0/fulltext. 27s 11u, D., Liu, B., and Feng, L. (2016). Origins of the Current Seventh Cholera Pandemic. Retrieved from https://www.pnas.orq/doi/1 0. 1 073/pnas. 1 608732 1 1 3. Smallpox (Eradicated in 1 e7e) The origin of smallpox is unknown; however, experts suggest that it has existed for at least 3,000 years. Estimated to be responsible for 300-500 million deaths during the 20th century, smallpox is one (1) of only two (2) human infectious diseases to be completely eradicated.-277 Before its eradication, up to 50 million were infected with smallpox annually. Estimated to have killed at least a third of Europe's population, the plague is estimated to have caused more that 25 million deaths in Europeans.278 Between the first plague (1348) and the'18rh century, more than 100 plaque epidemics ravaged Europe. Black Death (14th - lBth Centuries) Cholera Pandemics (1817 - 1970\ ln 150 years, seven (7) cholera pandemics swept through various parts of the world resulting in millions of deaths..27e ln the second outbreak, the disease traveled around the Northern Hemisphere in the span of a single year. Event Summary Chapter 4: Hazard ldentification and Risk Assessment 212