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2025 Hazard Mitigation Plan <br />Kittitas County, Washington <br /> <br /> <br />Chapter 4: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment 212 <br />Probability and Frequency <br />The probability of occurrence for communicable diseases/pandemics in Kittitas County is medium <br />because significant occurrences of this hazard have occasionally impacted the County and will likely <br />occur again within 25 years. As per a recent study by the Duke Global Health Institute, a pandemic with <br />an impact similar to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has about a 2% chance to occur every <br />year. Therefore, there is a 25% chance that a similar pandemic will happen during the next decade, and <br />50% chance within the next 20 years.274F <br />275 <br />Past Events <br />The most notable communicable disease event in the State of Washington was COVID-19, marking the <br />first confirmed case in the United States. On January 20, 2020, a 35 year old man who had recently <br />returned from Wuhan, China, was diagnosed with COVID-19 in Snohomish County, Washington. The <br />State experienced significant early impacts from the Pandemic. The first reported COVID-19 death in the <br />United States occurred in a nursing home in Kirkland, Washington. As a result, the Governor declared a <br />State of Emergency on February 29, 2020. Subsequently, public health measures were implemented – <br />closure of schools, businesses, and the implementation of stay at home orders to curb the spread of the <br />virus. Within weeks, the disease will rapidly spread in many parts of the country and worldwide. On March <br />11, 2020, the WHO declared COVID-19 a pandemic.275F <br />276 <br /> <br />Table 4-166 outlines notable pandemics that have occurred worldwide. <br />Table 4-166. Communicable Disease/Pandemic Events <br />Event Summary <br />Smallpox <br />(Eradicated in <br />1979) <br />The origin of smallpox is unknown; however, experts suggest that it has existed for at least <br />3,000 years. Estimated to be responsible for 300-500 million deaths during the 20th century, <br />smallpox is one (1) of only two (2) human infectious diseases to be completely <br />eradicated.276F <br />277 Before its eradication, up to 50 million were infected with smallpox annually. <br />Black Death <br />(14th – 18th <br />Centuries) <br />Estimated to have killed at least a third of Europe’s population, the plague is estimated to <br />have caused more that 25 million deaths in Europeans.277F <br />278 Between the first plague (1348) <br />and the 18th century, more than 100 plague epidemics ravaged Europe. <br />Cholera <br />Pandemics <br />(1817 – 1970) <br />In 150 years, seven (7) cholera pandemics swept through various parts of the world <br />resulting in millions of deaths.278F <br />279 In the second outbreak, the disease traveled around the <br />Northern Hemisphere in the span of a single year. <br /> <br />275 Penn, M. (2021). Statistics Say Large Pandemics Are More Likely Than We Thought. Retrieved from <br />https://globalhealth.duke.edu/news/statistics-say-large-pandemics-are-more-likely-we-thought. <br />276 Stein, A. J. (2020). First confirmed case of COVID-19 in the United States is diagnosed in Snohomish County <br />on January 20, 2020. Retrieved from https://www.historylink.org/File/21018. <br />277 Berche P. (2022). Life and Death of Smallpox. Retrieved from <br />https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0755498222000100?via%3Dihub. <br />278 Glatter, K. A. and Finkelman, P. (2020). History of the Plague: An Ancient Pandemic for the Age of COVID-19. <br />Retrieved from https://www.amjmed.com/article/S0002-9343(20)30792-0/fulltext. <br />279 Hu, D., Liu, B., and Feng, L. (2016). Origins of the Current Seventh Cholera Pandemic. Retrieved from <br />https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1608732113.