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Staff Report by: <br />Brian Carlson <br />Budget and Finance Director <br />Topic: <br />COLA Modeling for Exempt and <br />Non-Union Staff <br />Meeting <br />BOCC Special Meeting <br />2024 Budget <br />November 13th, 2023 <br /> <br />Analysis: <br />• Data below reflect 2017-2024 timeline and three-year averages. This departs somewhat from working- <br />group’s requests, but it facilitates and improves analysis without materially changing the results. <br /> <br /> <br />• A “zero-growth” revenue forecast from 2024 <br />through 2026 yields the graph to the right <br />• The COLA cost figures reflect countywide <br />application, rather than just exempt and non- <br />represented employees. <br />• COLA costs assume 4% annual CPI <br />• COLA figures are further adjusted to reflect <br />tenure, step-costs, associated retirement <br />benefits costs, and exclusion of elected officials <br /> <br />• With increased revenues, County can <br />“afford it” in the short term. But if COLAs <br />continue while revenues don’t grow, COLAs <br />eventually consume all of the “excess” revenue <br />from earlier years. <br /> <br />0% <br />5% <br />10% <br />15% <br />2020 2021 2022 2023 EST <br />Rates of Growth: Three-Year Rolling Average <br />Select Revenues Western CPI <br />-$5 <br />$0 <br />$5 <br />$10 <br />$15 <br />2020 2021 2022 2023 <br />EST <br />Mi <br />l <br />l <br />i <br />o <br />n <br />s <br />Revenue History <br />ANNUAL <br />AVERAGE (3-YR) <br />Revenues have grown faster than CPI <br />Revenue sample is 75% of total revenues, and <br />includes: <br />• Taxes <br />• Licenses and Permits <br />• Charges for Services <br />• Annual revenue change is volatile, including <br />$4MM negative change in 2023 <br />• Three-year average is less volatile, but still <br />reflects a downward trend <br />$0 <br />$2 <br />$4 <br />$6 <br />$8 <br />2020 2021 2022 2023 EST 2024 <br />BUD <br />2025 2026 <br />Mi <br />l <br />l <br />i <br />o <br />n <br />s <br />Revenue Average vs. COLA Cost <br />AVERAGE (3-YR)COLA COST <br />0% <br />5% <br />10% <br />15% <br />20% <br />25% <br />30% <br />2020 2021 2022 2023 EST 2024 <br />BUD <br />2025 2026 <br />Aggregate COLA vs Revenue