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Overall, this str-rdy looks at a very conservative capture scenario for' leaking r.etail sales in several <br />ways: <br />' Qnly counting existing leakage in both trade areas and presuming no population growth in <br />the primary lrade arca (which wili continue to grow); <br />" Only counting local ard regional population - not visitors (who comprise over 15Zo of the <br />customer base); <br />" Using a20o/o captLrre rate used, leaving 80o% of market leakage to continue to leak elsewhere; <br />" Using a very conservative $200 per square fool estimaied sales across all retail categories. <br />The supportable square footage rurder this scenario is 95,000 square feet of total retail in the <br />overall trade area. Suburban developers are likety to use more aggressive numbers, leaving <br />anyone looking at clowntown to focus on roughly a third of this number, Even still, this could <br />support significant expansion of the downtown's retail footprint by simply "freezing the <br />demand" in current time. <br />2.3.5 Key Housing Murket Opportunities <br />Unlike retail market analysis, housing markets are much less precise to unclerstand. Using the <br />projections for the primary trade area for population and household $owth it can be assumed <br />that the Ellensburg market will add 120 additional housing units per year in Ellensburg or 600 by <br />2024. Builcling permit data reported through the City of Ellensburg corroborat.. thi. number <br />with the average of 55 new units (conservative estimate) coming onlini each year. <br />National trends in housing indicate increasing interest in downtown living both with millennials <br />and empty nesters. With Ellensburg's young average age of 30 and large proportion of college <br />students, there is a potential market for altemative kinds of housing such as lofts, condos ancl <br />apartments. A simply allocation model that captures only 50% of the demand for future housing <br />in the market would yield 150 new units that do not conform to the traditional single-famil! <br />house. This estimate for additional downtown housing is a bit more aggressive than the retail <br />assessment but the national trends point toward growth in this area and new product coming on <br />line conoborates these national trends. More detail as to the location of this housing is shown in <br />the plans below but they will generally cluster in upper floor units in the core of downtown and <br />in new mixed-use development between downtown and Central Washington University. <br />2.3.6 Hotel Murket Opportunities <br />Ellensburg is home to ten hotel properties with a total of 682 hotel rooms. The occupancy rate <br />across all of these properties is 58%, which is slightly lower than the national standard of 62%.It is important to note, however, that this occupancy rate accounts for some ageing properties <br />within the city limits of Ellensburg and that new properties experience higher or.upuo.y. <br />The same is true for the averago daily room rate in Ellensburg, which stands at $87 per night and <br />is lower than the national average daily room rate at $104 per night. Again, ageing properties <br />can account for ihis figure. More importantly, Ellensburg has experienced an inciease in average <br />daily rates, revenue per available room, and occupancy rates. The Kittitas County Tourism <br />19