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CHAPTER 15. WILDFIRE <br />15-9 <br />century, and are expected to increase by 3 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of this century. Summer <br />precipitation is projected to decline by as much as 30%, with less frequent but heavier downpours. Declines <br />in snowpack will reduce the amount of spring snowmelt. Combined, these changes will cause an increase <br />in frequency and intensity of wildfire events. These conditions will exacerbate summer drought and further <br />promote high-elevation wildfires, releasing stores of carbon and further contributing to the buildup of <br />greenhouse gases. Forest response to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide—the so-called “fertilization <br />effect”—could also contribute to more tree growth and thus more fuel for fires, but the effects of carbon <br />dioxide on mature forests are still largely unknown. High carbon dioxide levels should enhance tree <br />recovery after fire and young forest regrowth, as long as sufficient nutrients and soil moisture are available, <br />although the latter is in question for many parts of the western United States because of climate change. <br />15.5. EXPOSURE <br />15.5.1 Population <br />Population could not be examined directly by wildfire regime zones because census blocks do not coincide <br />with the zones. However, population was estimated using the residential building count in each zone and <br />applying the census value of 2.32 persons per household for Kittitas County. The results are shown in Figure <br />15-2. <br />Table 15-2. Population Estimates Within Fire Regime Intervals <br />Jurisdiction 0 - 35 Year <br />Interval <br />36 - 100 <br />Year <br />Interval <br />101 - 1000 <br />Year <br />Interval <br />>1000 <br />Year <br />Interval <br />Other <br />Interval Total <br />Cle Elum 42 1,097 580 7 51 1,777 <br />Ellensburg 418 8,851 0 0 0 9,268 <br />Kittitas 49 981 0 0 0 1,030 <br />Roslyn 128 1,204 9 5 0 1,346 <br />South Cle Elum 26 332 188 5 0 550 <br />Unincorporated Kittitas County 6,510 9,491 1,462 724 346 18,532 <br />Total 7,171 21,956 2,239 740 397 32,503 <br /> <br />15.5.2 Property <br />Property damage from wildfires can be severe and can significantly alter entire communities. The number <br />and value of buildings in the various fire regime zones within the planning area are summarized in <br />Table 15-3 through Table 15-7 shows the general zoning of parcels exposed to the wildfire hazard in the <br />unincorporated portions of the county. <br /> <br />Table 15-3. Buildings in Kittitas County Exposed to the 0-35 Year Fire Interval <br />Jurisdiction <br />Buildings <br />Exposed to 0 <br />- 35 Year <br />Interval <br />0 - 35 Year <br />Interval <br />Exposed Value <br />Total <br />Buildings <br />Exposed <br />Total Exposed <br />Value <br />% of <br />Buildings <br />Exposed <br />% <br />Exposure <br />Value <br />Cle Elum 18 $2,851,620 770 $88,005,625 2% 3% <br />Ellensburg 181 $45,612,585 4,032 $894,213,490 4% 5% <br />Kittitas 21 $3,823,755 445 $66,114,260 5% 6%