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organizations from other states that are willing to switch to the WSHP, Rlthough our <br />survey does include organizations using Oregon facilities. If we assume that we only <br />contacted 60% of potential client organizations, and that the remaining organizations <br />are similar in character to the surveyed organizations, they we may scale up our <br />surveyed demand as follows: <br />10,630 X 60% = 17,717 <br />This results in a true total number of 17,717 horse days from 18 large events and 7 <br />small events. While the previous feasibility study estimated a 32 weekend season, a <br />six month or 26 weekend season seems more likely given Northwest weather <br />conditions and the length of the show season. While some of the small events may be <br />double booked for the same day or same weekend, there are few weekends remaining <br />for larger organizations. This is our optimistic forecast of horse day demand. <br />As another measure of potential demand, we note that in our sample-the average <br />number of horses at multiple day events is exactly f50. The average number of days in <br />multiple day events is 3.45. Multiplying these~ we have 518 horse days per multiple day <br />event. Jf we assume a 29 week season -every weekend April through S_eptember and <br />three w~ekends divided between March and October -this results in 29 times 518 or <br />15,027 horse days. For the total number of horse days to be larger than this, horse <br />organizations outside of our survey must hold substantially larger shows. Given that we <br />contacted the larger organizations, this seems unlikely. Our assumption of 29 events <br />per season is also somewhat heroic. <br />In alscusslng this point with an industry consultant, we were told that it is pos~ible that <br />entrepreneurs do put tt>gether horse shows Independently of local organizations. A 400 <br />horse show could be drawn from the membership of many local organizations. We do <br />not have any method of assessing likelihood that this will occur. Nothing in our survey <br />gave support to the Jdea that there Is an underlying demand for horseshows untapped <br />by e.xisting organizations. <br />26