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Four scenarios of the model were devaloped and "run.· They differed as to <br />assumptions of the following initial values and growth rates: numbers and types of <br />shows. entries. revenues, and costs. Scenario 3, the •m~st likely" scenario, proved to <br />be financially feasible, as did the "optimistic" Scenario 4. Scenario 3 projected: <br />• Attainment of break-even at the end of the fifth year of operations. <br />• Accumulation of $715,372 in losses by the end of the frfth year. <br />• Net revenues of $189, 732 _ when the facility reached maturity in year six. <br />• At maturity annual revenues to be $858,307 and annual expenses to be <br />$66~,575. <br />• A total of 25,600 horses to be entered .in shows annually when the facility is at <br />maturity. <br />• 89,600 exhibitors an~ spectators to use the facility an·nually when the facility is at <br />maturity. <br />• It would be necessary to create a capital funding approach which does not <br />require direct repayment from operating revenues, because the facility will not be <br />able to afford debt service. <br />An impa_ct model based upon expenditures of the· horse park participants and <br />expenditures for horse pai:k operations was developed to estimate financial flows to <br />both the local and state economies and to local and state finances. Using the "most <br />likely" scenario at year si~ maturity, the following impacts were projected: <br />16