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organizations from other states that are willing to switch to the WSHP, although our <br />survey does include organizations using Oregon facilities. If we assume that we only <br />contacted 60% of potential client organizations, and that the remaining organizations <br />are similar in character to the surveyed organizations, they we may scale up our <br />surveyed demand as follows: <br />10,630 x 60% =17,717 <br />This results in a true total number of 17,717 horse days from 18 large events and 7 <br />small events. While the previous feasibility study estimated a 32 weekend season, a <br />six month or 26 weekend season seems more likely given Northwest weather <br />conditions and the length of the show season. While some of the small events may be <br />double booked for the same day or same weekend, there are few weekends remaining <br />for larger organizations. This is our optimistic forecast of horse day demand. <br />As another measure -of potential demand, we note that in our sample -the average <br />number of horses at multiple day events Is exactly 150. The average number of days in <br />multiple day events is 3.45. Multiplying these, we have 518 horse days per multiple day <br />event. If we assume a 29 week season — every weekend April through September and <br />three weekends divided between March and October -• this results in 29 times 518 or <br />15,027 horse days. For the total number of horse days to be larger than this, horse <br />orgahizations outside of our survey must hold substantially larger shows. Given that we <br />contacted the larger organizations, this seems unlikely. Our assumption of 29 events <br />per season is also somewhat heroic. <br />In discussing this point with an industry consultant, we were told that it is possible that <br />entrepreneurs do pet together horse shows Independently of local organizations. A 400 <br />horse show could be drawn from the membership of many local organizations. We do <br />not have any method of assessing likelihood that this will occur. Nothing in our survey <br />gave support to the idea that there Is an underlying demand for horseshows untapped <br />by existing organizations. <br />26 <br />