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facility. When modeling changing revenue over time, we focus on the number of horse <br />days (one horse using the facility one day) and the average revenue per horse. This <br />ignores non -equestrian sources of revenue, which we will address below. <br />The number of horse days, and therefore revenue, depends on the number of events <br />hosted by the Horse Park, and the number of horses per event. While examining the <br />experience of other horse parks may be informative, demand for a facility may vary <br />dramatically from location to location, depending on such factors as the horse <br />population density of the area surrounding the perk, the number and quality of <br />competing parks, and the length of the season. Obviously the factors that make <br />demand large in such a location as Los Angeles may or may not apply in Washington. <br />Given this, we estimated demand several ways, using differing methods and <br />assumptions. The demand estimate from the 1998 version of this study simply <br />multiplied the number of stalls (400) times the number of weekend days the facility <br />would be open (64 days or 32 weekends), for a total number of horse days of 25,600. <br />This .underestimated demand because it Ignored the fad that most events will run from <br />three to five days. But It significantly overestimated demand, for in assumed that most <br />events will include the maximum number of horses (400). It also assumes full capacity <br />for 32 weekends. A 26 weekend season runs from April through the end of September, <br />32 weekends requires 6 weekends divided between March and October, which we <br />view as Infeasible on grounds of the length of the horse show season and <br />weatherAravel conditions. However, in one scenario described below we do assume <br />25,600 horse days, but this -number is excessively optimistic. <br />in order to develop a more fact based demand model, we asked a local horse <br />enthusiast, Steve Busick, to perform a market survey. Mr. Busick called the officials of <br />most Washington equestrian organizations, and recorded the number of events <br />conducted by each organization per year, and the number of horses in each event. He <br />24 <br />