2018-165 Transportation Plan - Laserfiche WebLink

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FUTURE REVENUES Expected future revenues for transportation were projected based on the County's historical sources of transportation revenue. We projected property taxes and other taxes, state shared revenues, the Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax (MVFT), federal and state grants, charges for services and fines, and other revenues based on historical trends. Different revenues sources are projected differently, and these approaches are outlined below (all projections are based on inflation-adjusted real 2018 dollars): Exhibit 8. Projection Approaches for Future Revenues PROJECTED BASED ON HISTORICAL REVENUE PROJECTED BASED ON HISTORICAL REVENUE RATE OF CHANGE AVERAGES • Property Taxes are projected on 3-year historical rate of change of per capita revenue. Property tax revenues are driven by population, and 2015 reflects the most recent year after a noticeable drop in property tax revenue per capita. Property taxes per capita have been declining at a compound annual rate of -1 .3% over the last 3 years; we project that future revenues continue to decrease by this rate. • Motor Vehicle Fuel Tax (MVFT) revenues are projected on 10-year historical rate of change of per capita revenue. Washington currently levies a tax of 49.4 cents per gallon on motor vehicle fuel, and counties receive o designated share. MVFT revenues in real dollars hove been declining. This trend is becoming more apparent in recent years due to the shift toward more fuel-efficient vehicles. Because of this, the County's state fuel tax distributions ore expected to continue to decline. Over the lost ten years, when adjusted for inflation, revenue per capita from MVFT has been declining by a compound annual rote of -1 .6%; we project that future revenues per capita continue to decrease by this rate. • Similar to MVFT, Other Revenues (inter- departmental funds and miscellaneous funds) and State Shared Revenues are also projected on 1 0- year historical rote of change of per capita revenue. Other Revenues per capita hove been declining at a compound annual rate of -15.9%, while State Shared Revenues per capita have been growing at a compound annual rate of 1 0.3%; we project that these rates of change will continue. • Federal Grants and State Grants. BERK's projection assumes federal and state grants revenue will remain constant based on the average annual revenue from 2008-2017, with two anomalous years removed: 2013 and 2015. In 2013 the County received unanticipated grant funding for the Kittitas Highway project which enabled them to borrow ahead on those grant funds and as o result shows higher than normal grant allocations. In 2015 there was a supplemental action by the state legislature that provided the county with additional grant funding associated with the state's purchase of Teanaway Community Forest. This was a one-time allocation of funds as a way to offset lost revenue to the county. Neither year is representative of the expected range of grant funding to be secured during the next 20 years. This approach assumes that the County's future ability to secure federal and state grants is constant based on the historical period. • Other Taxes and Charges for Services and Fines are projected on 10-year historical average per capita revenue. These sources are driven by population but have been volatile historically, fluctuating each year. A 10-year average provides a closer projection of future revenues. Sources: Kittitas County Public Works 20 l 8; BERK Consulting 20 l 8 . : ~I I May 22, 20 l 8 Kittitas County Public Works I 20-Year TIP Fiscal Sustainability Strategy : Final Report 10