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$136 spent per person per day.Because these expendituresare primarily for tourist <br />services,we assumethat 82%of expenditures will impact the local economy.The <br />remaining 18%will go to vendors who travel to the county for these events,and are <br />therefore not considered "local." <br />Findings of the Impact Model <br />We applied the impact model only to the results of Scenarios 3 and 4,the "most likely" <br />feasibility models;both were based upon the same starting numbers of horses across <br />the years of analysis.As the impact model results are linear functions of the number of <br />horses and therefore visitors,impacts for the other feasibility runs can be easily <br />calculated.Table 9 shows the logic and results of the model.Let us use the Year Six <br />column to show the impact of the horse park in its maturity stage.Direct participant <br />expendituresof $7,334,838 are shown on line 1;these are comprised of the number of <br />horses,times the number of participants per horse,times the spending at $138 per day. <br />Line 1 is next margined at 95%to reflect the fact that 95%of participants are from <br />outside the county.(Expenditures by in-county participants are netted out as it is <br />assumed that this money would be spent in the county even withoutthe horse park.) <br />This margining yields the $6,968,096 in line 2,spending by participants on the local <br />market.Line 3 gives the $347,540 of expendituresmade by the horse park <br />administration;it is calculated by multiplying horse park expensesby 48%to account <br />for expenses that flow into the local economy;the remaining 52%will be spent outside <br />the local area.The sum of these two categories of local expenses(local spending by <br />participants,shown in line 2 plus spending on horse park operations,shown on line 3) <br />appears as $7,315,636 in line 4 as local total direct expenditures.These,in turn are <br />multiplied by the local (county)multiplierof 1.15 to yield local total impacts,shown in <br />line 5.This number,$8,412,982 represents the total money flows,including indirect <br />and induced effects in the local economy that are attributableto the horse park.Using <br />the employment multiplierof 17 jobs per million dollars of direct expenditures gives us <br />41