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through Five show the assumptionsand output of each of the modeled scenarios. <br />Scenario 1:This has our pessimistic estimate of the maximumnumber of horses, <br />plateauing at 10,630 horse days per year.We begin with more than one third of this - <br />4000 horse days per year.We assume a low rate of growth;the park takes 8 years to <br />achieve its ma×imum number of horse days.Revenue starts at $20 per horse.All <br />scenarios start with the same assumption about costs,but since this model has few <br />horses the initial cost per horse is quite high.With this scenario,the park never <br />experiencesprofitability,and loses approximately half a million dollars per year. <br />Scenario 2:This has the very most optimistic demand forecast;all 400 stalls rented for <br />every weekendfor 32 weekends,or 25,600 horse days per year,and a rapid rate of <br />browth to this number.Revenuestarts at $30 per horse.Profitability is achieved by <br />year six,and followingthis the facility has net revenues of around $150,000 per year. <br />Scenario 3:This scenario assumes a maximumof 17,717 horse days per year,$30 per <br />horse revenue,and $100,000 per year of non-equestrian revenue.At its maximum <br />numberof horse days,the facility loses approximately$80 thousandper year. <br />Scenario 4:This duplicates scenario 3,but instead of adding non-equestrian revenue, <br />we raise the revenue per horse sufficiently to break even.At $42 per horse,the facility <br />will net approximately$15 thousandper year.This corresponds to stall receipts of $21 <br />per horse,and correspondingfees for all other revenue sources (shavings,feed,etc.). <br />We view Scenario 3 as the most likely outcome,with the reservation that the $100,000 <br />in alternativerevenue is far from certain.This scenario is consistent with the <br />experience of the vast majorityof horse parks around the country -it is very difficult to <br />find any examples of horse parks that do not require continuing subsidies. <br />31