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organizations from other states that are willing to switch to the WSHP,although our <br />survey does include organizations using Oregon facilities.If we assume that we only <br />contacted 60%of potentialclient organizations,and that the remaining organizations <br />are similar in character to the surveyed organizations,they we may scale up our <br />surveyed demand as follows: <br />10,630 x 60%=17,717 <br />This results in a true total number of 17,717 horse days from 18 large events and 7 <br />small events.While the previous feasibility study estimateda 32 weekend season,a <br />six month or 26 weekend season seems more likely given Northwest weather <br />conditionsand the length of the show season.While some of the small events may be <br />double booked for the same day or same weekend,there are few weekendsremaining <br />for larger organizations.This is our optimistic forecast of horse day demand. <br />As another measure of potential demand,we note that in our sample the average <br />number of horses at multipleday eventsis exactly 150.The average number of days in <br />multiple day events is 3.45.Multiplying these,we have 518 horse days per multipleday <br />event.If we assume a 29 week season -every weekendApril through September and <br />three weekends divided between March and October -this results in 29 times 518 or <br />15,027 horse days.For the total numberof horse days to be larger than this,horse <br />organizationsoutside of our survey must hold substantiallylarger shows.Given that we <br />contactedthe larger organizations,this seems unlikely.Our assumption of 29 events <br />per season is also somewhatheroic. <br />In discussing this point with an industry consultant,we were told that it is possible that <br />entrepreneursdo put together horse shows independently of local organizations.A 400 <br />horse show could be drawn from the membership of many local organizations.We do <br />not have any method of assessinglikelihood that this will occur.Nothing in our survey <br />gave support to the idea that there is an underlying demand for horseshows untapped <br />by existing organizations. <br />26