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Four scenarios of the model were developed and "run."They differed as to <br />assumptionsof the following initial values and growth rates:numbers and types of <br />shows,entries,revenues,and costs.Scenario 3,the "most likely"scenario,proved to <br />be financiallyfeasible,as did the "optimistic"Scenario 4.Scenario 3 projected: <br />*Attainment of break-even at the end of the fifth year of operations. <br />*Accumulationof $715,372 in losses by the end of the fifth year. <br />*Net revenues of $189,732 when the facility reached maturity in year six. <br />*At maturity annual revenues to be $858,307 and annual expenses to be <br />$668,575. <br />*A total of 25,600 horses to be entered in shows annually when the facility is at <br />maturity. <br />*89,600 exhibitorsand spectators to use the facility annually when the facility is at <br />maturity. <br />*It would be necessary to create a capital funding approach which does not <br />require direct repayment from operating revenues,because the facility will not be <br />able to afford debt service. <br />An impact model based upon expenditures of the horse park participants and <br />expendituresfor horse park operations was developedto estimatefinancial flows to <br />both the local and state economies and to local and state finances.Using the "most <br />likely"scenario at year six maturity,the following impacts were projected: <br />16