Resolution to Adopt 2037Population and Employment Projections

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Resolution 2017-_____ Attachment A Kittitas County Population and Employment Allocations for 2037 The Kittitas County population/employment projections and allocations establish the growth forecasts to be used for planning purposes and the specific growth targets for each Urban Growth Area (UGA). As established by the Washington Growth Management Act (RCW 43.62.035), the State of Washington Office of Financial Management (OFM) prepares twenty-year growth management planning population projections for each county planning under GMA. The OFM prepares high, medium and low forecasts for each county, with the middle range representing the most likely scenario. Total county forecasts must be based upon the most recent projection provided by the OFM when counties and jurisdictions make population projections for planning purposes (RCW 36.70A.110(2)). The county level forecasts are reviewed and distributed among the jurisdictions in the County through a collaborative process. The Kittitas County Conference of Governments (KCCOG) is the body charged with leading this process. Once population allocations are established, jurisdictions must develop plans that demonstrate the capacity to accommodate their 20-year population projection consistent with GMA. The KCCOG updated the Kittitas County population allocation based on a projected two percent (2%) overall annual County population growth and within the OFM 2012 population forecast. This results in a Kittitas County total population forecast of 65,967 in 2037. The allocation adopted by the KCCOG for anticipated population growth of the municipal UGAs and the unincorporated rural County is based upon the assumption that sixty-five percent (65%) of the future population will reside within urban areas and that thirty-five percent (35%) will reside in rural areas of the County. County Employment projection is based upon an employment estimate of 19,362 workers in 2015 with an anticipated growth rate of two percent (2%). Employment allocation and projection is based upon the assumption that eighty percent (80%) of job growth will locate in urban areas (and that twenty percent (20%) percent will locate in rural areas outside the established urban growth areas. Results from this analysis are shown below: Table 1. 2037 Population and Employment Projection Jurisdiction 2037 Population Growth 2037 Population 2037 Employment Growth* 2037 Employment Cle Elum 1808 3683 1353 3399 Ellensburg 11757 32540 6998 18488 Kittitas 807 2288 365 804 Roslyn 307 1203 202 1352 South Cle Elum 464 1059 6 13 County Rural 8154 25197 2231 6461 Kittitas County Total Population and Employment 23297 65967 11155 30517 *2015 Employment estimates based on total countywide employment estimate of 19,362 and 2015 employment shares